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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2025-12-28T23:00:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-12-28T23:00Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/43631/-1
CME Note: CME first seen to the West by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 202512-28T23:00Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and GOES CCOR-1 in later frames. This CME is not visible in STEREO A COR2 due to a data gap which began at 2025-12-28T17:53Z. The source of this event is an M4.2 flare from N08W28 which peaked at 2025-12-28T22:39Z as seen in SDO AIA 131. A wide region of dimming stretching towards the South and West can be seen in SDO AIA 193 and 211, along with field line opening seen in SDO AIA 171 and GOES SUVI 284. Possible/likely arrival signature: Potential weak glancing blow CME signature at 2025-12-31T13:20Z characterized by an increase in B_total from ~4nT to ~11nT, separation of magnetic field components, an increase in solar wind speeds from ~400 km/s to ~540 km/s, temporary increases in solar wind temperature and density, followed by drop in density. This feature may be embedded within the start of a weak coronal hole high speed stream.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-12-31T13:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-01-01T13:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SIDC
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2025 Dec 29 1240 UTC
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51229
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 29 Dec 2025, 1239UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 29 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 195 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 30 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 203 / AP: 017 PREDICTIONS FOR 31 Dec 2025  10CM FLUX: 210 / AP: 038

Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 4 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an
M4.2 flare (SIDC Flare 6518) peaking on December 28 at 22:39 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 735 (NOAA Active Region 4317). SIDC Sunspot Groups 744 and 745 (NOAA Active Regions 4324 and 4325, respectively) are two of the other complex regions on disk (Beta-Gamma) and both also produced low level M-class flares and were growing over the period. SIDC Sunspot Group 740 (NOAA Active Region 4321, magnetic type Beta Delta) was quiet and is now approaching the west solar limb. The remaining regions are simple and mostly quiet. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

Coronal mass ejections: A partial halo Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) directed to the north-west, with a width of approximately 120 degrees and speed of around 450 km/s, was detected in LASCO-C2 data from 23:00 UTC on December 28. This CME (SIDC CME 616) was associated with an M4.2 flare (SIDC Flare
6518) peaking on December 28 at 22:39 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 735 (NOAA Active Region 4317). This CME is currently being modelled, but initial analysis suggests this would likely have a glancing blow arrival at Earth early on January 01. No other Earth-directed (CMEs) were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.

Coronal holes: SIDC Coronal Hole 140 (mid-latitude, negative polarity) continues to transit the central meridian since December 28.

Solar wind: Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters reflected a slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed decreased from 480 km/s to around
415 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field ranged between 3 and 8 nT, and Bz had a minimum of -5nT.  The interplanetary magnetic field angle phi was mostly in the positive sector. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. From late on December 30, enhanced solar wind conditions are possible due the CIR and high speed stream arrival associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 140 (negative polarity) which began to cross the central meridian on December 28.

Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally (NOAA Kp 1 to 3) and locally (K BEL 1 to 3) over the past 24 hours. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours.

Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES-18 and GOES-19 satellites, was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold for past 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to remain so.


TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 141, BASED ON 08 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 28 Dec 2025
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 188
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 019
AK WINGST              : 010
ESTIMATED AP           : 009
ESTIMATED ISN          : 152, BASED ON 22 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES
28  2103  2113 2123 S07E47 M1.3 SF       ///4325
28  2201  2239 2254 N08W31 M4.2 1F       48/4317
28  2357  0002 0007 ////// M2.2          ///4324
29  0634  0651 0656 S10E43 M1.0 SF       53/4325
END

Lead Time: 44.18 hour(s)
Difference: -23.67 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2025-12-29T17:09Z

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